Leading Transportation Indicators: Forecasting Waterborne Commerce Statistics Using Lock Performance Data

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a forecasting model for transportation data based on the leading economic indicators literature. The specific application is to forecast river tonnages. Waterborne commerce data reflect tonnages of commodities moved on various rivers and in various directions. They are released after the Lock Performance Monitoring System data which reflect tonnages moving through specific locks. The model presented here forecasts waterborne commerce data from lock performance data. The results suggest that even a very simple model can provide precise forecasts.