Emerging Commuting Trends: Evidence from the Chicago Area

Abstract

Over the last several decades, commuting distances have increased in both miles and travel time. This analysis focuses on the county-to-county commuting data from the Census Transportation Planning Package that show intercounty commuting has increased substantially. In the Chicago six-county region, these data indicate that three of the six counties are now (2000) net importers of workers. In the past, only Cook County (Chicago) had a net positive balance of workers.


In contrast to past trends, demographic changes now contribute to lower increases in the growth in the number of workers. Specifically, in the 1990s average household size stopped decreasing for the first time in 100 years. This was partially responsible for a decline in the portion of the population that was commuting, a statistic that had been steadily increasing. In fact, in previous decades there was a larger growth in the number of workers than in people, thereby adding substantially to peak-period traffic when population growth was modest. This has changed.


Furthermore, in past decades large increases in homeownership rates contributed to the growth of urbanized areas. This suggests that workers made housing choices that added to commuting distances. The ability and willingness to increase commuting distances made it possible for employers to find their employees from a larger geographic region.