Oregon 2100: projected climatic and ecological changes

Authors

  • Gregory J Retallack University of Oregon
  • Daniel G Gavin University of Oregon
  • Edward Byrd Davis University of Oregon
  • Nathan D Sheldon University of Michigan
  • Jon M Erlandson University of Oregon
  • Mark H Reed University of Oregon
  • Erick A Bestland Flinders University
  • Joshua J Roering University of Oregon
  • Robert J Carson Whitman College
  • Ronald B Mitchell University of Oregon

Abstract

Greenhouse climatic warming is underway and exacerbated by human activities. Future outcomes of these processes can be projected using computer models checked against climatic changes during comparable past atmospheric compositions. This study gives concise quantitative predictions for future climate, landscapes, soils, vegetation, and marine and terrestrial animals of Oregon. Fossil fuel burning and other human activities by the year 2100 are projected to yield atmospheric CO2 levels of about 600-850 ppm (SRES A1B and B1), well above current levels of 400 ppm and preindustrial levels of 280 ppm. Such a greenhouse climate was last recorded in Oregon during the middle Miocene, some 16 million years ago. Oregon’s future may be guided by fossil records of the middle Miocene, as well as ongoing studies on the environmental tolerances of Oregon plants and animals, and experiments on the biological effects of global warming. As carbon dioxide levels increase, Oregon’s climate will move toward warm temperate, humid in the west and semiarid to subhumid to the east, with increased summer and winter drought in the west. Western Oregon lowlands will become less suitable for temperate fruits and nuts and Pinot Noir grapes, but its hills will remain a productive softwood forest resource. Improved pasture and winter wheat crops will become more widespread in eastern Oregon. Tsunamis and stronger storms will exacerbate marine erosion along the Oregon Coast, with significant damage to coastal properties and cultural resources.

Author Biographies

Gregory J Retallack, University of Oregon

Department of Geological Sciences

Daniel G Gavin, University of Oregon

Department of Geography

Edward Byrd Davis, University of Oregon

Museum of Natural and Cultural History and Department of Geological Sciences

Nathan D Sheldon, University of Michigan

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences

Jon M Erlandson, University of Oregon

Museum of Natural and Cultural History and Department of Anthropology

Mark H Reed, University of Oregon

Department of Geological Sciences

Erick A Bestland, Flinders University

Department of Geoscience

Joshua J Roering, University of Oregon

Department of Geological Sciences

Robert J Carson, Whitman College

Department of Geology and Environmental Studies

Ronald B Mitchell, University of Oregon

Department of Political Science

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Published

2016-03-01

How to Cite

Retallack, G. J., Gavin, D. G., Davis, E. B., Sheldon, N. D., Erlandson, J. M., Reed, M. H., Bestland, E. A., Roering, J. J., Carson, R. J., & Mitchell, R. B. (2016). Oregon 2100: projected climatic and ecological changes. Bulletin of the Museum of Natural History, University of Oregon, (26). Retrieved from https://journals.oregondigital.org/nat_history/article/view/5671

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Section

Articles